$600 a month in travel — about $7,200 a year — is the level where everyone assumes a premium travel card finally pays off. Run the net-value math and the assumption mostly breaks.
The reason is plain arithmetic: a premium card's travel multiplier only applies to your travel spend. On $7,200 a year, the gap between 2x and 4x on travel is real but modest — and it rarely covers a $395–$795 annual fee plus the ground lost to a card that earns well on everything else. So the cards that win on raw rewards here are the ones with the strongest all-around earn and the lowest effective fee, not the flashiest travel perks.
That doesn't make premium travel cards pointless — it means they're justified by their benefits (lounges, credits, insurance), not their earn rate. The math ranking comes first below; then when to pay for the perks anyway.
Key insight
On $7,200/year of travel, the best widely available travel rate — 4x on flights and hotels booked direct — earns about $576/year. Meaningful, but not enough to overcome a premium card's fee plus its weakness on the rest of your spending. Amex Gold tops this ranking at ~$1,065/year without earning a cent extra on travel: ~$324 in annual credits plus 4x on dining and US groceries out-earn the travel cards across the whole wallet. The famous premium travel cards — Chase Sapphire Reserve, Capital One Venture X — don't even make the top five here once their fees are counted. They become the right answer only when their benefits are worth more to you than the ~$300–$500/year of rewards you give up versus Gold.